Doug Sosnik, senior advisor at the Brunswick Group and a former advisor to President Bill Clinton, said the year 2000 marked the beginning of a correlation between people's education levels and voting patterns.
In last year's presidential election, Democrats carried 14 of the 15 most college-educated states, while Republicans captured 14 of the 15 least college-educated states.
New Mexico – with a lower rate of folks with bachelor's degrees than other states – was the exception in voting Democratic.
Many people in rural and blue-collar occupations have faced stagnant wages, job insecurity, and the loss of manufacturing jobs. Sosnik said those 2024 voters hoped the GOP's populist agenda would help them.
"Up until the '70s, we had a thriving middle-class of non-college-educated people," said Sosnik. "We've moved to this new era, and the people who've been left behind are disproportionately non-college-educated people."
He said those with college degrees typically vote in more elections than people with a high school education, which could explain recent off-year Democratic wins in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City – where the share of residents with college degrees tops 50%.
Nonetheless, Sosnik said it's too early to tell if the recent Democratic wins foretell anything about the 2028 presidential election. He noted that Barack Obama's win in 2008 was the biggest political victory by a Democrat for president since Lyndon Johnson.
But just two years later, Democrats had the most significant midterm loss by a party since World War II.
According to Sosnik, that's because the people who voted for Obama were attracted to him, not necessarily down-ballot candidates. He said he believes Republicans could face a similar challenge in next year's midterms when President Donald Trump isn't running for office.
"Trump has uniquely been able to get people to come out and vote who had normally not voted," said Sosnik. "But support for Trump is personal and has not been transferable to other Republicans, particularly when he's not on the ballot."
Sosnik said the key driver in elections is always the economy – and if voters continue to say they're being squeezed by cost-of-living issues, Democrats are likely to win more midterm races than their Republican counterparts.
