Looking Ahead
It's the last thing residents in hard hit parts of the commonwealth want to hear, but conditions are ripe for another few rounds of potentially severe storms.
Mark Jarvis, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, says much of southern and central Kentucky could see possible damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. As for those areas devastated over the weekend, Jarvis says it's too early to say which communities may see the worst on Tuesday.
"It's hard to say in exactly one location that would be favored, but that portion of the southern half of Kentucky and the northern half of Tennessee seem to be under the gun," he says.
Kentucky we've got more severe weather heading our way. Some storms may move through overnight tonight, but the largest risk begins tomorrow in Western Kentucky at 11 a.m. CT, 12 noon ET. Every area of the state may experience storms, but Western Kentucky is at a higher risk.1/3 pic.twitter.com/jQQuYF2BTO
— Governor Andy Beshear (@GovAndyBeshear) May 19, 2025
As for Lexington, Jarvis says several waves of storms appear poised to pass through on Tuesday.
"Having these successive waves like that, it's hard to say whether or not any one of them could be severe because once you have a wave move through, it does kind of dilute the atmosphere, eats up some of the energy and the instability," Jarvis explains. "But each one of these lines could theoretically pack a punch."
While the projections might not be quite as worrisome as what we saw last Friday, he says Kentuckians need to be ready to take cover again just in case.
Also complicating Tuesday: a systems upgrade at the National Weather Service and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which won't be finished until Wednesday.
"That means your weather radio won't work if you have one. So make sure that you have other means to get those emergency updates late tonight while you're sleeping, but especially tomorrow as it comes through, or make sure you're awake watching your local meteorologist, listening to your local radio station," Gov. Andy Beshear reported.
The New Normal?
"So let's separate... we have the February flooding and we have the April flooding..."
When speaking about federal disasters this year, Gov. Andy Beshear has found himself frequently having to specify which one he's discussing and where federal disaster aid stands. It's also meant that responses to one disaster are being interrupted by new emergencies.
It's a situation that begs the question: is this what we can expect from now on?
As for 2025, Jarvis characterized the string of storms as occurring within the normal scope of Kentucky's typical weather cycles — but at a more brisk pace.
"Our peak severe weather season in Kentucky is late March through early June, so we're right in the middle of it," he says. "It just seems to be that we've had more frequent bouts of severe weather and they've been kind of running close together — from floods to severe weather and then more floods."
Zooming out, the Lexington Herald-Leader reports Kentucky has endured 18 weather emergencies since 2019, a pattern that's consistent with much of the country.
The Environmental Protection Agency says scientific studies indicate that extreme weather events such as large storms, flooding, and heat waves are likely to become more frequent or stronger due to climate change.
Intense single-day rain events are on the rise. The agency says they remained fairly steady from 1910 to the 1980s before starting to trend upward. Nationwide, the EPA reports nine of the top 10 years for extreme one-day precipitation events have occurred since 1995.