The US economy contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 — the first negative reading since 2022 — according NBC News. That's reinforced fears that the US could be on course for a recession, often defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
Asked whether those numbers are on the minds of lawmakers as they gear up to tackle a spending plan next year, Kentucky Senate President Robert Stivers pointed to different stats.
"There was a contraindicating number to this contracting, that they added 177,000 more jobs, and that is considering... when you lost 9,000 federal government jobs," he said Tuesday during a swing through Lexington. "So to say what the economy is going to do, I don't think there's any clear indicators."
While the labor market seems to be holding its own, economists are keeping a close eye on sectors that could be the first to feel the ripple effects of the president's trade policies in the coming months — areas such as retail, manufacturing, transportation, and agriculture.
In Kentucky, Stivers noted state lawmakers haven't had access to key data that would allow for a better assessment of how the commonwealth is faring.
"We haven't received our receipt reports for the last two-and-a-half months to see what our economy is doing... by the receipts of sales tax, income tax, corporate tax," he said. "So I think people, again, are trying to create something without really knowing if it really is."
For now, Trump has waved away concerns about the economy, either blaming the numbers on his predecessor or conceding that the country will undergo what he's termed a "transition period." The second quarter’s data, running from April to June, will help economists get a clearer picture the effects of the president's 145% tariff on China and 10% baseline tariff on the rest of the world.