University of Kentucky political analyst Stephen Voss says he’s not expecting any sweeping changes in the early weeks of Gov.-elect Matt Bevin’s administration.
Many questions linger as Bevin prepares to recite the Oath of Office – just what will become of the state’s much-vaunted Medicaid expansion, what changes could be in store for an ailing pension system, and how the political outsider plans to govern. The uncertainty has Democrats on edge and Republicans hopeful, but Voss warns voters not to fall for overly dire or rosy predictions.
"Usually people listen to campaign rhetoric, which tends to promise dramatic change, and then they're surprised that things don't change quite as radically as they were led to expect," he says. "Sometimes they're happy about that if they're on the other side and sometimes they're disappointed when they don't get from the elected leaders everything that they had hoped they could get from campaign season."
And while Democrats maintain a slight edge in the House of Representatives, Voss says the party’s moderate and conservative wings could help pave the way for fruitful compromises during the upcoming General Assembly session.
On Bevin's team: "I think people who thought that he'd be operating completely at arm's length from the Republican establishment in the state probably have been calmed somewhat to see that he's bringing in people with long-term ties and ties to even past Republican administrations."
On Medicaid-heavy counties voting Republican: "My best guess, judging from the data analysis, is that those voters put Bevin in office not because of economic and domestic policy but because of social and cultural issues: same-sex marriage, abortion, Planned Parenthood, immigration, and issues like that."
On Bevin-as-bellwether: "It would be foolish for anybody to read too much into this. He squeaked by in the Republican primary to get the nomination. It was hardly some grand push for the outsider, given that he only won by 83 votes. And then by the time he's running against Conway, yes, Bevin's the insider and Conway is the insider, but that's not what's structuring people's votes at this point. It's Democrat versus Republican, liberal versus conservative..."
