Projections by a health research center at the University of Washington suggest cases of COVID-19 will reach at least their first peak in Kentucky around May 9th. But the online health information site also has some encouraging news for the commonwealth.
The online tool, created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at UW Medicine, collects data from the World Health Organization and information on hospital capacity and utilization, and uses statistical modeling to paint a picture of what the next four months could look like in every state across the country.
It's a big assignment, but with its current numbers, the site predicts it will be just over a month (37 days) before deaths from COVID-19 reach a daily high in Kentucky of around 11. The projections, which run through August 4, 2020, estimate the state could see 605 deaths from the illness through that time period.
But the online tool also shows the state meeting the projected need for regular and ICU hospital beds, and ventilators. It does not track testing or access to PPE, or personal protective equipment, for health workers and other first responders - which the governor has warned is in short supply. State officials have been hesitant to offer any predictions about a possible timeline for the outbreak in Kentucky.
One element of the tool that appears out-of-sync with the latest precautions taken by Kentucky is a section tracking state-mandated social distancing orders. Under "stay at home order" and "education facilities closed," the site reports Kentucky has "not implemented" the changes. The governor has not ordered residents to shelter in place, but state and local leaders are recommending residents stay home unless they need to visit the grocery, drug store, exercise on their own, or access healthcare. Schools were ordered closed across the state in mid-March.
The site can be found at covid19.healthdata.org.
