President Trump's push for Texas Republicans to redraw congressional lines ahead of next year's midterm elections has triggered a redistricting arms race. Democrats in California have already moved to counter Texas with a new map of their own, and leaders of both parties are intensifying similar efforts in states across the country.
In a more typical political climate, redistricting happens just once every 10 years. The burgeoning redistricting fight is instead happening mid-decade, and comes with control of the House in 2026 resting on a dwindling number of competitive seats.
Bipartisan warnings about the fallout from mid-decade redistricting often focus on the impact on voters in new districts losing responsive representation.
Other observers warn that more partisan congressional maps could also further erode the constitutional power of the people's House.
Texas and California have kicked off the push
Under the plan finalized by the GOP-led Texas legislature last weekend, Republicans stand to win five additional seats in Congress during next year's midterms. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has, in turn, signed legislation that forces a November vote on a referendum to remove the role of an independent redistricting commission in the state. Democrats there are hoping to adopt a new map created by the House Democrats' campaign arm designed to oust five Republicans from office.
One of those Republicans is Rep. Kevin Kiley. His district runs along most of California's border with Nevada, but under the new map drawn by Democrats it won't exist anymore.
"Our voters have made it very clear that politicians should not be in charge of drawing their own district lines. That's an inherent conflict of interest," Kiley said in an interview.
Kiley sees practical implications in the push to redraw California's maps. He says he worked to secure $22 million for a road project for the largest county in his district. Under the Democratic redistricting plan, that county would be split into four separate districts.
"That is chaotic. It's incredibly disruptive, and it harms the very idea of representative government. I mean, if just all of a sudden you have communities tossed out of your district that you've come to know, they've come to know you, you understand their issues."
Sean Trende, a senior elections analyst with Real Clear Politics, said "place matters" in terms of the geographical shape of congressional districts.
Voters look at their representatives not just for how they may have voted on the president's signature bill, he said, but whether they can deliver money for a local bridge or road project. The more parties control how districts are drawn, he says, "it really kind of moves representation away from how it's supposed to work in our system."
The risk of growing polarization
The Framers designed the House to be closest to the people. But with the chamber's already tight margins and an increasingly wide ideological divide between the two parties, gridlock is the new normal.
Trende warns the redistricting fight could compound dysfunction in the House, because with fewer swing districts there will be fewer moderates with incentives to reach across the aisle.
"It almost compounds things when you have these super safe seats because you have members who have just zero interest in even taking like an 18th of a loaf," he said. Instead of moderates needing to show a willingness to work across the aisle to get things done there are even more lawmakers insulated from political pressures.
That effectively means the legislative branch ends up ceding more power to the executive and judicial branches, according to Trende. "It really is a movement away from what's supposed to be our most responsive democratic branches to the more unelected branches who are more insulated from public opinion."
An already tight House margin regularly threatens key planks of the GOP agenda. If Democrats flip the House next fall, they can effectively stall much of President Trump's priorities and launch investigations into his policies. In one sign of the stakes, outside groups are expected to spend as much as $300 million combined on campaigns in the run up to the fall vote on the California ballot measure, according to political operatives involved in the campaign.
Regardless of which way the vote goes, Kiley argues that maximizing partisan advantage only increases polarization.
''We disagree on enough as it is that if we can't agree on the basic rules of the road, the rules of the game, the basic parameters of our politics, then we're really in big trouble," he said.
More states are expected to follow suit
While blue California and red Texas have already jumped into the redistricting game, they won't be the last. Ohio was already planning to redraw its lines. Republicans in Indiana and Missouri could follow suit, as could Florida. A judge in Utah this week threw out the state's map, so Republicans face a challenge to defend the lines there.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., blames Trump for the frenzy.
"They started it but we're not going to let them finish it," he told NPR in an interview.
The top House Democrat maintains the only way the GOP believes they can keep their majority is by redistricting.
"Utility costs are going up. Full prices are going up. The cost of clothing is going up. If you want to find a reason why Donald Trump and House Republicans have decided to launch a redistricting war as part of their effort to try to rig the midterm elections, it's because they have failed to govern in a manner that makes life better for the American people," Jeffries said.
Democrats need to pick up four seats to win back the House next fall. To do so Jeffries vows Democrats are going to take the redistricting fight coast to coast. Blue states like Maryland, Illinois and maybe Oregon could move to counter GOP gains.
"Republicans are trying to shrink the map. And we are not going to let that happen," said Jeffries.
Calls for reform
Critics say the best way to end redistricting fever is to ban states from redrawing lines mid-decade.
Trende notes redistricting isn't a new phenomenon, but the divisive political atmosphere only reinforces the motivation for both parties to continue pushing the limits.
"In this current nasty, polarized environment, you can see that parties draw the map and then one of their incumbents looks kind of wobbly. And so they redraw it to shore that member up, and it's just kind of an ugly situation."
Kiley is pushing a federal bill to ban states from redrawing lines mid-decade. If passed, the legislation would kick in beginning in 2032, following the 2030 census. However, given Trump's support for redistricting, the bill appears a long shot.
"Let's have an armistice and this, you know, brewing war that's playing out right now," he said, adding that his own party leaders are wrong to push for it in GOP states. "I think gerrymandering is a plague on our democracy, wherever it occurs."
The California Republican is also calling on Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to create a bipartisan congressional commission to examine proposals to address redistricting.
"I think this is a moment where the speaker really needs to show leadership. We have this very damaging redistricting war breaking out across the country that is going to be corrosive to the House as an institution and is also going to be very harmful to members of Congress on both the Republican and the Democrat side," Kiley said.
Speaker Johnson's office did not respond to a request for comment.
On the national level, GOP leaders are focused on the short term and the 2026 map. Former Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is heading up fundraising and political efforts in his home state of California. And leaders from Johnson to the head of the House GOP's campaign arm are working to frame Newsom's role as a play for a 2028 presidential campaign.
"Californians see through Newsom's stunt, and they won't allow a self-serving politician to rig the system for his own career," National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson said in a statement.
Jeffries noted that Democrats approved legislation in 2019 that included provisions to create independent, nonpartisan commissions to handle redistricting. He said if his party flips the House, legislation to ban mid-decade redistricting will be a top priority.
Without reform, the doom loop of redistricting and polarization may just keep spinning.
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