Putin has made the rise of the Russian state and national pride central to his politics, but Petrone says a full-scale invasion of Ukraine could alter that strategic calculus. While the annexation of Crimea in 2014 proved popular in Russia, the prospect of a hot war and serious casualties could turn the tide on Russian public opinion.
"Whether this popularity will continue if there is a bloody war with Ukraine I think is up for question because I do not fundamentally think that the Russian people have necessarily bought into the idea of war as something that they want to engage in."Dr. Karen Petrone, University of Kentucky history professor
Petrone says sanctions and the halting of a key gas pipeline project connecting Russia and Europe will put financial pressure on Putin’s economy, but Russians aren’t likely to feel the effects in the short term. That could mean they have less effect on short term thinking in the Kremlin.
Listen to the full interview for more on the historical links between Russia and Ukraine, the rebirth of the Cold War, and Putin's endgame.