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Tuesday's election is now down to a challenging variable to predict – turnout

Josh James
/
WUKY

Kentucky’s top election official is predicting turnout around 42% in Tuesday’s General Election as candidates make their final pitches.

All told, 260,324 voters took advantage of early voting this year in the commonwealth, up slightly from last year, when just over 253,000 cast their ballots ahead of Election Day.

Now, with just hours left, it’s all about the ground game for incumbent Andy Beshear and challenger Daniel Cameron. And that means a busy schedule and a workout for the candidates' vocal cords.

Beshear’s campaign was scheduled to make stops in Pikeville, Prestonsburg, Morehead, Lexington, and Louisville Monday. Cameron, meanwhile, is participating in what’s being dubbed a Tele-Town Hall Rally with former president Donald Trump, inviting the public to call in at 9 tonight.

The energy of the race ramped up last week with the release of a poll putting the contest at a dead heat. That survey sampled likely voters, adding to Republican hopes of an upset on Tuesday. But UK political analyst Stephen Voss says gauging exactly who will turn out is a challenge for any pollster.

"Actually pinning down who's going to vote is one of the hardest things about polling," he says. "So even when you try to restrict yourself to likely voters, you're not necessarily getting a perfect snapshot of the electorate."

As usual, election watchers are keeping a close eye – not just on the results – but on what Kentucky’s turnout might tell them about who’s more motivated to cast a ballot in 2024.

Josh James fell in love with college radio at Western Kentucky University's student station, New Rock 92 (now Revolution 91.7). After working as a DJ and program director, he knew he wanted to come home to Lexington and try his hand in public radio.