Two public opinion surveys by the same pollster show Democrat Andy Beshear with an edge in the governor’s race, but the most recent hints that Cameron could be narrowing the gap.
Before you read much into the two polls produced by Public Opinion Strategies, however, it’s important to add some context and caveats.
First, the group conducting the polls is considered to be aligned with the GOP, but take the grain of salt lightly, as the pollster is graded as a B+ by election monitors fivethiryteight. A respectable ranking.
Second, the surveys were conducted fairly close to one another, with one in June at the behest of the Pritchard Committee and another in July for a national GOP group.
The first shows Beshear with a 10-point lead over Cameron, while the second, more recent survey puts the divide at just 4 points. So the polls give both sides something to trumpet — with Republicans eager to tout the possible tightening of the race and Democrats able to tout Beshear’s consistent lead and a job approval rating at 63% in the first poll.
And one other key detail: UK political analyst Stephen Voss points out in a Herald-Leader piece that the results of both polls are within the margin of error, meaning they may show more movement than is actually taking place in the electorate.
Monday, Morning Consult released fresh numbers from a poll taken between April and June. They continue to show Beshear bucking the trends by maintaining support from a healthy percentage of Republicans in the otherwise reliably red state. The polling group says roughly half of GOP respondents gave Beshear favorable marks, making him “the country’s most popular Democratic governor with the other party’s voters.”
The poll’s 64% approval rating for Beshear is consistent with the Public Opinion Strategies survey that scored the Democrat at around the same number.
While Beshear’s potential to pull from independents and Republicans is shaping up to be a hurdle for his GOP rival, other signs could help buoy hopes for Team Cameron. The earlier POS poll also found other statewide offices trending heavily in the GOP direction. Those include the secretary of state, attorney general, and agriculture commissioner contests. That could bode well for Cameron, if Kentuckians resist voting a split ticket.
