AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
It seems like gambling is everywhere these days. You can bet on professional sports, award shows and even on elections all through your phone. But what happens when online betting reaches an active war zone? Prediction websites like Polymarket now host bets on the war in Ukraine and other live conflicts around the world. For example, will Russia take this city by the end of the year, or will a ceasefire be called in 2025? The bets have put millions of dollars on the table, generated controversy and attracted a data manipulation scandal. To tell us more, we're joined by Matthew Gault of 404 Media, who has been covering this story. Matthew, welcome to the program.
MATTHEW GAULT: Hi. Thank you so much for having me on.
RASCOE: Can you tell us more about these online prediction markets? Like, how do you bet on the outcome of a war?
GAULT: So the way Polymarket works is you either bet yes or no on something. So yes, Russia will take this city or no they won't by a certain date. And the amount of money you spend on each individual bet is between 1 cent and a full dollar, and you can bet as many times as you want.
RASCOE: How is it decided? Like, who lets you know that, OK, the city has been taken or this has happened?
GAULT: So this is kind of the center of the controversy. Specifically for the war in Ukraine, Polymarket is looking at a map that's created by the Institute for the Study of War, which is a pretty prestigious and well-respected think tank out of D.C. They chart the front lines of conflict zones, and they're very good at it.
RASCOE: So you reported on this particular issue involving a bet last month. The question was whether Russia will take a specific intersection in the besieged city of Myrnohrad by November 15. But the map that's used to make these bets was manipulated. So what happened here?
GAULT: So on November 15, just before 6 a.m. in the morning, somebody who had access to the map edited the map to make it appear as if Russia had advanced into the city and taken the square. So after the Polymarket bet resolves and the money's paid out, well, suddenly, that edit vanishes.
RASCOE: So, I mean, how much money was at stake for this bet?
GAULT: So there's, like, $1.8 million in volume total. And some of that's, like, people betting against. Some of that's people betting for, but that's total betting volume. And one of the biggest cash outs was around $200,000.
RASCOE: OK. So the Institute for the Study of War, as you mentioned, is responsible for creating and updating this map. What did they have to say about this?
GAULT: They issued a public statement saying that they know the map had been edited, that they had reverted the edit, that the edit was unauthorized, and they were taking steps to handle it internally. I reached out to them. When I spoke with them, they stopped short of acknowledging that the edit had happened because of Polymarket, but they did say that they were aware that people were betting on Polymarket and using ISW as the resource and that they were against this adamantly.
RASCOE: OK. And did you reach out to Polymarket as well? Like, what's their response to this?
GAULT: So this is interesting. I did reach out to Polymarket, and they did not respond. All of these kind of, like, disputes over bets like this are handled internally, and there's a time limit on them. And in this case, no one did that. No one disputed it in the time frame, so the money was paid out.
RASCOE: I mean, the outcome of these bets is decided by warfare, and, I mean, that's not a game. People are dying, lives destroyed. Are there any sort of moral or legal red flags for these websites that host these bets?
GAULT: Legal red flags, I would say that we're kind of in a weird gray zone, especially in America at the moment. Gambling is everywhere, and in everyone's face. And we've essentially decriminalized it in the United States, and we're kind of living with the consequences of that. Morally, in my opinion, there's no question that this is morally reprehensible. And I know that soldiers on the frontline in Ukraine are aware that this is happening and are upset.
RASCOE: So for the people who do participate on these gambling sites, have you heard how they justify betting on wars?
GAULT: They're removed from it enough that it is just another market to them. It's the same as you would bet on sports or horse racing. And I think that that's part of what these betting markets do is they dehumanize what is a horrifying conflict.
RASCOE: That was Matthew Gault of 404 Media. Thank you so much for joining us.
GAULT: Thank you so much for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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