AILSA CHANG, HOST:
For many years, the governments of India and the U.S. have been getting closer as they both grew concerned about China's growing power.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Namaste. Namaste.
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CHANG: That is President Trump in his first term at a rally that Prime Minister Narendra Modi held for him in India. But in recent days, that relationship has changed. Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports, then issued an executive order that would soon double it to 50%, in part to penalize India for continuing to purchase Russian oil. So what is going on between D.C. and New Delhi? Well, Evan Feigenbaum worked on U.S.-India relations at the State Department for a part of the George W. Bush administration. He's now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and joins us now. Welcome.
EVAN FEIGENBAUM: Thanks for having me.
CHANG: So this strategic partnership between India and the U.S., I mean, it's been delicately cultivated over several, both Republican and Democratic, administrations. In fact, Prime Minister Modi was one of the first foreign leaders to visit the White House this year. So why are we seeing this sudden shift now?
FEIGENBAUM: I think it's, frankly, President Trump. President Trump, despite working hard to build productive U.S.-India relations in his first term, has come back into office with a big focus on trade deficits in goods. The United States and India do about $212 billion in two-way trade. The United States has about a $40 billion deficit in goods with India. And he's focused on this to the exclusion of many other issues. He's not as sold on the high-level strategic arguments about geopolitics, and so he's put trade issues front and center. And in that context, it implicates a lot of domestic political issues in India, where they're simply dealing with their own domestic politics around some of the demands the U.S. has put on them.
CHANG: And what has India had to say so far about this change in their relationship with the U.S.?
FEIGENBAUM: Well, in India - just as in the United States, where building U.S.-India relations was largely bipartisan - this had really not been a highly politicized issue for the last two decades. Now relations with the United States are a political football, and...
CHANG: Yeah.
FEIGENBAUM: ...Prime Minister Modi has been backed into a corner and is being pushed not to show, quote-unquote, "weakness" in the face of American pressure. So that is definitely a signal change in what had been a big achievement for both sides, which was to depoliticize their relationship.
CHANG: So interesting - do you think India will retaliate against the U.S.? Like, take any action in response to these higher tariffs?
FEIGENBAUM: I think India is doing a lot of signaling. For one thing, the Indian national security adviser immediately made a visit to Moscow, where he met with President Putin. It's been leaked to the Indian press that they've invited President Putin to visit India. And Prime Minister Modi is about to go off to China to attend a multilateral summit. So India doesn't have a ton of retaliatory options on the economic front, and I think they'd like to get to a tariff agreement. But if you think over a longer time horizon, the trust is gone in India toward the United States, and I think that changes the foreign policy context somewhat, even if they don't have a lot of strategic options.
CHANG: Let's talk about that because in the spring, when India and Pakistan stopped fighting after four days of a conflict that seemed to be teetering on a full-blown war, President Trump, he took credit for brokering a ceasefire. But Prime Minister Modi noticeably did not acknowledge U.S. involvement. Is that part of the tension here between the two leaders, you think?
FEIGENBAUM: I think if you step back and look at it in a larger context, the United States and India have both, over the years, objected to many aspects of one another's relationships with third countries. India objected to many aspects of the U.S. relationship and negotiations with China. The U.S., for its part, has objected to many aspects of India's relationship with Russia, which is now caught in the crosshairs.
CHANG: Right.
FEIGENBAUM: But they never let those third-party relationships bleed back into building a productive bilateral relationship. That, too, has changed utterly, and that's a signal change that is going to be very debilitating for the U.S.-India relationship.
CHANG: Well, President Trump keeps talking about making deals in this context. Do you think it's possible that India and the U.S. will reach some economic deal that involves lower U.S. tariffs on Indian goods?
FEIGENBAUM: I think they will reach a deal. India is going to want to reduce the tariffs from the United States. And the president has a penchant for deal-making. I think the problem is twofold. First, the trust is largely gone. Second, the relationship is, as I said, more politicized. India is in a pickle to negotiate with President Trump because there's no rhyme, reason or logic to the U.S. approach to this. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on countries with which it has a trade deficit but also countries with which it has a trade surplus, countries with which it has done free trade agreements but also countries with which it has no free trade agreements. So the challenge for India is to figure out a negotiating strategy that makes this issue go away, puts a floor under the free fall in the U.S.-India relationship but does it in a way that doesn't involve the president changing his mind, imposing more tariffs down the road. That's a very unpredictable environment for the Indians to be in.
CHANG: Evan Feigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace where he focuses on East and South Asia, thank you very much.
FEIGENBAUM: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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