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What the Israel-Iran conflict means for the wider region

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

What happens in this war between Israel and Iran will have major repercussions for the entire Middle East. For years, Iran commanded huge influence throughout the region by way of militias and forces they funded and armed in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Yemen and Iraq. Israel has spent the last couple of years attacking and weakening those groups, and now it's turned its weaponry and attention directly to Iran. So how is this war being received in the region? To understand that, we're joined by journalist Kim Ghattas. She has covered the Middle East for decades and is the author of the book "Black Wave," which chronicles the long rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. She joins us on the line from Beirut. Good morning, Kim.

KIM GHATTAS: Great to be with you, Leila. Good morning.

FADEL: Thank you for being here. Now, Kim, we haven't seen a major reaction from Iran's allies or proxies. I assume in part because they're not capable or fully gone, like Bashar al-Assad in Syria. You're in Lebanon. Where is Hezbollah in all this, one of Iran's most powerful proxies until it was severely decimated by Israeli attacks in the past year?

GHATTAS: As you say, Leila, Hezbollah has been severely incapacitated by Israeli attacks last year, attacks which continue to this day. There are still regular strikes, Israeli strikes, against southern Lebanon, the eastern Bekaa Valley, and just two weeks ago, one in Beirut. I think Hezbollah is wary of getting involved because it knows that the Israeli reaction will be devastating for Lebanon. It's been made very clear to Hezbollah that they should stay out of it. That's been the message from U.S. officials who visited Lebanon, from the Lebanese government as well and the Lebanese president. And their way of saving face for Hezbollah, after all this time saying that they're, you know, the vanguard of defending Iran, is to say Iran doesn't need our help at the moment. And indeed, you could argue that Iran's missiles are doing enough damage in Israel as it is.

FADEL: Where do other countries stand in this conflict, and what do they want to see happen? I'm thinking of Jordan, the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, which is also a regional powerhouse.

GHATTAS: Everyone is very worried about the fact that Benjamin Netanyahu knows how to start wars, doesn't have a plan for how they end, nor for the day after. And we've seen that with Gaza. And they become very frustrated, particularly countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, who've constantly extended their hand to Israel. The UAE has the Abraham Accords with Israel. They're frustrated by Benjamin Netanyahu's repeated, continuous efforts to violently reshape the region. Obviously, they have no real love lost for Iran.

FADEL: Right.

GHATTAS: They're probably quietly satisfied that its military commanders, ballistic missiles, nuclear program is taking a hit. But they're also incredibly worried about the chaos this could provoke in the region and the fact, as I said, that Bibi doesn't have a plan for the day after. I think they're also surprised by President Trump's decision to go along with Benjamin Netanyahu, either for a while already or in the last week before the strike started, because that was not the mood barely a few weeks ago when President Trump visited Saudi Arabia, and all the talk was about, you know, building hotels and, you know, doing business deals. They did not want this war. And they're certainly working the phones very hard to make that message, make that case to President Trump.

FADEL: I mean, as you point out, there's no love lost between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran. But you say they fear destabilization and violence. Are there hopes in these European talks with Iran? Is this something regional leaders support?

GHATTAS: Regional leaders absolutely support negotiations. They want this campaign to come to a close fairly soon, again, keeping in consideration sort of the pragmatic look at the positives of such a decapitation campaign against Iran's, you know, military capabilities. But it needs to wrap up. And I'm being, you know, very pragmatic. And we must point out that civilians are dying in Iran as well - Israeli strikes are not only going against military or nuclear targets. But they're also worried about being collateral damage. If this goes on for too long, Iran could potentially, as a last resort, lash out against U.S. military forces in the region. And those are positioned in Gulf countries all around the region.

FADEL: Kim Ghattas is a journalist, a contributing writer to the Financial Times. And she joined us from Beirut. Thank you so much.

GHATTAS: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Leila Fadel is a national correspondent for NPR based in Los Angeles, covering issues of culture, diversity, and race.