According to a report commissioned by the Kentucky Distillers Association, Kentucky whiskey exports dropped 26% following the president's tariffs back in 2018, and whiskey makers say overseas demand never fully bounced back.
Now, Trump is ordering a 50% tariff on Canadian products, rewriting the script yet again.
"Canada's been very, very tough on us over the years, for many years, and no other president's done anything about it," he said.
If you want a taste of how some Canadian leaders are responding, here's a salty one, courtesy of British Columbia Premier David Eby: "There is not a chance in hell that U.S. alcohol is going back on the shelf in British Columbia, and I'm proud of that, and I know the British Columbians support that."
While a repeat of previous boycotts is not welcome news for bourbon makers, distillers paint a more nuanced picture when it comes to the state of their industry. Numerous factors are at work, they say, from a decline in demand, especially among younger customers, to inflation-driven input costs. With stock reaching record levels, some distillers are dialing back production in an effort to better match demand — a tricky job.
But one bright spot for Kentucky has been tourism, with Kentucky bourbon trail visitors remaining steady and expansion projects still moving forward.
Prior to the latest tariff announcement, KDA President Eric Gregory told WKYT he sees bourbon as a resilient industry.
"Yeah, we've got challenges and headwinds going on right now, but sooner or later, people are going to return to bourbon, and when they return to bourbon, there's only one place they can return to, and that's Kentucky," he said.
In the meantime, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says "everything is on the table depending on the outcome of the negotiations" as the country's trade dispute with the U.S. ramps back up.