While market watchers are keeping a close eye on how the conflict develops and whether oil and gas facilities sustain direct hits, analysts don't expect prices to spike overnight. But a 10-15 cent uptick is expected in the coming days.
Whether prices continue to climb is an open question, as the conflict unfolds.
U.S. gas prices averaged just under $3 a gallon prior to the attack. Predictions for how high they might go vary, though some experts say worldwide supply levels make a jump to over $5, as the U.S. saw in 2022, unlikely.
Ship traffic has reportedly plummeted at the Strait of Hormuz, putting a squeeze on tankers carrying around 20% of the world's daily oil supply.
To track gas prices in your area, use this Gas Buddy map.
Update from AP (4:17 PM):
With world markets already rattled by the fighting, QatarEnergy said it would stop producing liquefied natural gas, taking one of the world’s top suppliers off the market. It offered no timeline for restoring production. European natural gas prices surged by 40% in response.
Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil refinery came under attack from drones, and its defenses downed the incoming aircraft, a military spokesman told the state-run Saudi Press Agency. The refinery has a capacity of over half a million barrels of crude oil a day.
Several ships have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all oil traded passes and where Iran has threatened attacks.
The Gulf state of Qatar said its air force had shot down two Iranian Sukhoi Su-24 bombers.
“The attack on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery marks a significant escalation, with Gulf energy infrastructure now squarely in Iran’s sights,” said Torbjorn Soltvedt, an analyst at the risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.
The Gulf is also a hub for air travel, and passengers have been stranded around the world as carriers based there grounded flights. Long-haul carriers Etihad and Emirates restarted limited flights Monday.