ROB SCHMITZ, HOST:
The protests began about two weeks ago in the markets of Tehran. They've since spread to other cities and towns, a nationwide uprising against the authoritarian government of Iran. That authoritarian government has responded how it has in the past, with violent crackdowns. Human rights groups now say thousands of protesters have been killed. The protest prompted President Trump, who last year directed the bombing of nuclear sites in Iran, to threaten military force. And today, President Trump announced on social media, I have canceled all meetings with Iranian officials until the senseless killing of protesters stops. Help is on its way.
To understand this moment, earlier today, I spoke with Ambassador John Bolton, who helped shape the pressure campaign on Iran during Trump's first term as national security advisor. I asked him if he thought this was the beginning of the end for the Iranian regime.
JOHN BOLTON: I think the regime is at its weakest, most unpopular point, really since coming to power in 1979. What you're seeing now is largely driven by the economic situation in the country, which is really in very, very bad shape and has been for quite some period of time. But there are many other factors here. The young people are dissatisfied. They know they could have a different kind of life. The female half of the population has been unhappy for over two years since the murder of Mahsa Amini. And there are ethnic tensions, as well. This regime is a lot weaker than it looks, but it does control a monopoly of force. So I think the opposition needs the regime to fragment at the top. They could certainly help it, but I think help from outside, as well, would be critical at this point.
SCHMITZ: And I want to go into that. You know, what happens if this regime falls? Theoretically, it could lead to a more democratic Iran, but I don't need to tell you that there are plenty of examples in the Middle East where a power vacuum has led to civil war and general chaos. What do you think would happen?
BOLTON: Well, let's define regime, which is not just the ayatollahs, but it includes the revolutionary guards. This is, at this point, as much a military dictatorship as it is a theocracy. So we've got to get rid of the revolutionary guards or at least the commanders who are really the ones who follow the Islamic Revolution. Iran is a sophisticated, well-educated population. I think that probably there would be some interim government maybe led by people in the military temporarily. But I don't think it would last very long. I think they would want to give a chance for the people to try and express their views very quickly. It's hard to see you're going to get a regime worse than this one, which is the principal sponsor of international terrorism and pursuing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles that threaten Israel, threaten our Arab neighbors, threaten us, ultimately. I think we know where the population is going here, and I think it's the right direction.
SCHMITZ: So you do see a scenario where the Iranian military, the Revolutionary Guard - it could turn and maybe side with protesters?
BOLTON: Well, I think it would fragment. I think the regular military is a possibility, too. I think the rank and file in both the military and the Revolutionary Guard know how terrible economic conditions are in the country. Their family members, their friends - they see it every day. So I'm not thinking necessarily the highest-ranking generals will turn...
SCHMITZ: OK.
BOLTON: ...But colonels, maybe one-star generals, yeah. I think they could split. And then I think the troops will not fire on the demonstrators.
SCHMITZ: Now, President Trump said Sunday we are looking at some very strong options. He was referring to military force. What's your read on this? Is this part of President Trump's negotiating strategy with Tehran, or do you think the president is referring to U.S. missile strikes on Iran?
BOLTON: Well, I think that possibility is certainly there. You know, for years, people said, oh, you can't attack the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The Iranian people will rally to the side of the regime. Well, we did attack the Iranian nuclear weapons program, and now the Iranian people are in the streets saying death to the ayatollahs. So I think use of military force against targets like headquarters of the Revolutionary Guard, against the nuclear program, clearly targets that show to the opposition we're with them. And Trump has been tweeting today saying, you know, Iranian patriots, keep protesting. Take over your institutions. That's exactly what we ought to be doing.
SCHMITZ: Now, you're making a parallel of Iranian nuclear sites, but, you know, this is a regime that has tentacles throughout the country. Can the U.S. really bomb this regime out of power?
BOLTON: I don't think that's the objective, although we could certainly do a lot of damage beyond what we and the Israelis did during the 12-day war. And it's the encouragement it would give to the opposition that we will be dismantling, at least partly, the regime's ability to repress them. Now, he is saying in Venezuela to the opposition, don't take over the institutions. We'll let Delcy Rodríguez control them - just completely contradictory. The Venezuelan opposition should be taking over the institutions in Venezuela, if Trump could get his head screwed on straight. He's telling the Iranians, go out into the streets and risk getting killed, but he's not willing to do that in Venezuela.
SCHMITZ: If the first step is indeed diplomacy and not bombing or cyberattacks, if the U.S. and Iran conduct negotiations, what would they be negotiating?
BOLTON: I don't have any idea what we would negotiate with this regime. I think it would be a waste of oxygen. And, you know, Trump always talks about meetings. Everybody wants to meet with Donald Trump. We know that. I think it's the regime playing for time. I think it's a reflection of their conclusion that their situation is very serious, and they're desperate to avoid American kinetic action.
SCHMITZ: Now, I need to ask you while we have you, you've been a major Trump critic since you left his first administration. You've recently been indicted on federal charges related to mishandling classified information. You've pleaded not guilty. What is next in this situation for you?
BOLTON: Well, I can't really get into the specifics of that. I'd love to be able to discuss it, but this is, unfortunately, just not the time.
SCHMITZ: Ambassador John Bolton, former national security advisor, thank you so much.
BOLTON: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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