How is the U.S. Senate race shaping up? Does it create an opening for Dems? We talk with a UK political analyst
By Josh James
April 24, 2025 at 11:58 AM EDT
With Sixth District Congressman Andy Barr officially joining the race for U.S. Senate, two big names are in — and they're both seeking a Trump endorsement.
Barr is the second Republican to throw his hat into the ring following former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, and there could be more to come as others, such as businessman Nate Morris, mull a run for Sen. Mitch McConnell's seat.
As for the current two-man race, UK Political Science Professor Stephen Voss says both campaigns can point to distinct advantages.
"Cameron brings high name recognition, which he earned through his run against Andy Beshear for governor, and that's Cameron's strength. Andy Barr brings into the race a whole lot of money and support from a strong base, that he can bring into the race," Voss says.
As for the coveted Trump endorsement, Voss observes that the president wants to back candidates who already appear to have an edge, meaning part of the value of the Trump stamp of approval may already be baked in before its awarded.
"Because people fail to realize that the Trump endorsements are partly strategic, partly based on who is likely to win, they think a Trump endorsement matters more than it does," he says. "Still, a Trump endorsement does matter in a Republican primary."
Cameron released poll results just ahead of Barr's announcement that would seem to be good news for the former gubernatorial candidate, but Voss says the numbers also had a potential message for any less prominent hopefuls.
"Cameron's poll results showed him ahead of Barr by a substantial amount, but maybe even more important is that Cameron's internal poll showed Morris with negligible support. And if the goal is to keep it to a two-candidate race, having Morris look so bad in the in the Cameron internal poll was was good for that outcome," Voss adds.
Still, the political analyst notes that a Trump endorsement can elevate outside candidates, should others enter the contest.
Meanwhile, Democrats are eying Barr's seat. Voss says the time is right — if the party can overcome Republicans' numerical advantage.
The Sixth District, which includes Lexington, was a GOP-friendly district even before the latest round of redistricting, which put the party at +13. For reference, President Trump won the region by 15 points in November.
But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has listed the district as one it hopes to flip next year. While noting clear Republican advantage, Voss says — if an upset is possible — the next election cycle would be the time.
"No incumbency advantage for the Republicans because Barr won't be in the race, that helps the Democrats. The fact that Donald Trump will have been leading a Republican unified government for two years, that usually leads to good outcomes for the Democrats. The fact that Fayette County is highly mobilized, its Democratic voters who are likely to be highly engaged, that would help a Democrat in 2026," he says. "So if there's any time this Sixth District is likely to go to a Democrat instead of the GOP, 2026 looks like when that window would be open."
Republicans have scoffed at the idea that Democrats could pick up the seat in their bid to retake the House — with Republican Party of Kentucky spokesman Andy Westberry saying it's a diverse area but the rural counties are "diehard Trump country."
As for the current two-man race, UK Political Science Professor Stephen Voss says both campaigns can point to distinct advantages.
"Cameron brings high name recognition, which he earned through his run against Andy Beshear for governor, and that's Cameron's strength. Andy Barr brings into the race a whole lot of money and support from a strong base, that he can bring into the race," Voss says.
As for the coveted Trump endorsement, Voss observes that the president wants to back candidates who already appear to have an edge, meaning part of the value of the Trump stamp of approval may already be baked in before its awarded.
"Because people fail to realize that the Trump endorsements are partly strategic, partly based on who is likely to win, they think a Trump endorsement matters more than it does," he says. "Still, a Trump endorsement does matter in a Republican primary."
Cameron released poll results just ahead of Barr's announcement that would seem to be good news for the former gubernatorial candidate, but Voss says the numbers also had a potential message for any less prominent hopefuls.
"Cameron's poll results showed him ahead of Barr by a substantial amount, but maybe even more important is that Cameron's internal poll showed Morris with negligible support. And if the goal is to keep it to a two-candidate race, having Morris look so bad in the in the Cameron internal poll was was good for that outcome," Voss adds.
Still, the political analyst notes that a Trump endorsement can elevate outside candidates, should others enter the contest.
Meanwhile, Democrats are eying Barr's seat. Voss says the time is right — if the party can overcome Republicans' numerical advantage.
The Sixth District, which includes Lexington, was a GOP-friendly district even before the latest round of redistricting, which put the party at +13. For reference, President Trump won the region by 15 points in November.
But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has listed the district as one it hopes to flip next year. While noting clear Republican advantage, Voss says — if an upset is possible — the next election cycle would be the time.
"No incumbency advantage for the Republicans because Barr won't be in the race, that helps the Democrats. The fact that Donald Trump will have been leading a Republican unified government for two years, that usually leads to good outcomes for the Democrats. The fact that Fayette County is highly mobilized, its Democratic voters who are likely to be highly engaged, that would help a Democrat in 2026," he says. "So if there's any time this Sixth District is likely to go to a Democrat instead of the GOP, 2026 looks like when that window would be open."
Republicans have scoffed at the idea that Democrats could pick up the seat in their bid to retake the House — with Republican Party of Kentucky spokesman Andy Westberry saying it's a diverse area but the rural counties are "diehard Trump country."