Expanding healthcare facilities normally takes years of planning as hospitals map out their needs, gauge community demand, and size up their finances. Right now, it's a race against the clock.
In the coming weeks, sites built to host state fair booths, athletic training, and even relaxing weekend getaways will be overhauled in rapid fashion as the state scales up its hospital and quarantine capacity ahead of an expected surge in COVID-19 patients.
Monday, crews at the University of Kentucky began setting up a temporary hospital inside the Nutter Field House, normally a practice facility for UK football. University spokesman Jay Blanton says early indications are it will come online in short order.
"They are moving very quickly with respect to the installation and the stand up of the field hospital," he says. "Expect that we will be done within the two week period that we set up as an operation framework to get that done."
And down the street at the school's massive healthcare complex, "when you go in some of the major entrances over there, you'll see places to stop to make sure you have a mask on, so that's been put in place." That's in addition to more stringent visitor rules in both the main hospital and children's hospital.
Plans are also underway to convert a hotel in Lexington into hospital rooms.
The state's largest planned field hospital, meanwhile, is reportedly in the earlier stages of construction at the state fairgrounds in Louisville, with help from the Kentucky National Guard and the Army Corps of Engineers. Once it's completed, officials hope to provide at least 2,000 backup beds inside the exposition center.
At the same time, the state has announced lodges at state campgrounds will be repurposed to hold up to an additional 1,200 beds if needed, while first responders who haven't tested positive for COVID-19 but need to quarantine away from family will be able to stay in cabins.
A Matter Of Time
The latest statistical modeling out of the University of Washington shows Kentucky reaching a peak of COVID-19 cases earlier than previous predictions, which placed the expected spike in May. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at UW Medicine now suggests the surge could come in just two weeks.
Like the spread of the novel coronavirus, the corresponding modeling is a fast-moving target. On that front, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear has sounded cautious when commenting to reporters.
"We see different modeling from different groups and it's all based on what we think with very limited data, and about escalation of cases and what we are seeing across the country," he said in his Monday briefing.
But as more information does become available and graphs begin to take shape, one regularly-updated model based on World Health Organization numbers shows Kentucky approaching a coronavirus peak around April 21. On that date, UW Medicine projects the state could see more than 50 deaths from illness and a shortage of ICU beds nearing 55. Initial results had signaled the state might be able to withstand the surge using already available resources.
Regarding White House numbers, Beshear has sounded skeptical of predictions showing between 1,300 and 3,200 fatalities in the state with social distancing measures in place. Those projections likely present an "optimistic scenario," he has said, adding he also believes they underestimate the effect Kentucky's early action and compliance could have on the ultimate rate.
The governor more commonly cites numbers from COVID ACT NOW, a project involving "America's preeminent epidemiologists and data scientists." Their model shows roughly 13,000 deaths in the state over three months if residents fail to fully comply with mitigation efforts. That number drops to around 2,000 if Kentuckians observe social distancing and other health guidelines.
The governor reports he's confident the state can increase its supply of hospital beds to between 23,000 and 25,000.
