Republicans are touting the new poll as evidence that Cameron is seeing eleventh hour gains as voters head to the polls. One other twist: the new survey showing both candidates at 47% comes from the same pollster that put Beshear 16 points ahead just a month ago.
One reason could be the methodology, with the early October poll surveying registered voters and the second looking to isolate people who identify as very likely to vote or have already voted.
But University of Kentucky political analyst Stephen Voss urges caution in reading the new poll as a straightforward representation of where the electorate currently stands.
"When you had a whole series of polls saying one thing and all of the sudden another one shows up that deviates from it, you probably shouldn't assume that the new poll represents a change in the race," Voss says. "More likely it's just the random noise you get when you engage in polling and you only samples hundreds or maybe 1,000 people."
On the other hand, Voss says it could indicate tightening as election day approaches.
Another factor is undecided voters, who, in the new poll, leaned slightly in Cameron’s favor.
"What undecideds do typically engage in is moving toward where the electorate is, or where the forces or the vibes in the election are moving late in the contest, and insofar as the last week or two things haven't been going so great for Beshear, they've been going better for Cameron than they had earlier in the election season, it would not be surprising to see the undecideds drifting toward Cameron at this point," Voss says.
Emerson College Polling is current rated an A- by election site FiveThirtyEight, with the pollster predicting election outcomes correctly 78% of the time over 256 polls.
